Offseason Analysis Series: Denver Broncos

Meaningful Additions: HC Nathaniel Hackett, QB Russell Wilson, EDGE Randy Gregory, DL DJ Jones, DB K'Waun Williams, EDGE Nik Bonitto, TE Greg Dulcich, DB Damarri Mathis, OG Tom Compton

Meaningful Losses: HC Vic Fangio, QB Drew Lock, QB Teddy Bridgewater, TE Noah Fant, DB Kyle Fuller, WR DaeSean Hamilton

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What Happened Last Year?

(7-10) Fourth in AFC West

Offense

Denver's offense was average in 2021, finishing 23rd in total points, 19th in passing yardage and 13th in rushing yardage. QB Teddy Bridgewater started 14 games for the Broncos and completed 66.9% of his passes while also posting 18 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Bridgewater also finished 10th in the league in on target throw percentage at 77.8%. Steady Teddy's stats were reflective of his cautious, but accurate playstyle. His staple has always been high percentage, low risk throws. Unfortunately, teams can only have limited success when their passing attack is limited like that. The team's leading receiver, WR Courtland Sutton, had 776 yards and brought in just two touchdowns on the season. Sutton is a big bodied contested catch specialist who can make plays down the field, and it is not surprising that his numbers suffered with Bridgewater at quarterback. The rest of the wideout room was a mixed bag with the Tim Patrick continuing his solid play pulling in 53 receptions for 734 yards and 5 touchdowns. On the flip side of the coin, 2020 first-round pick Jerry Jeudy again struggled with injuries and showed little improvement in his sophomore season.

The Bronco's ground game was exciting during the 2021 season. Rookie Javonte Williams and veteran Melvin Gordon had nearly identical stats on their way to each rushing for over 900 yards. Both backs got the rock 203 times and were extremely efficient. The main difference between the two was that Gordon was deployed as the team's goal-line specialist so he finished with eight rushing touchdowns to Williams' four. Although Gordon and Williams had close to the same numbers, Williams really impressed with his ability to break tackles and make defenders miss. Over the course of the season, Williams forced 63 missed tackles (2nd among all RB). I think Williams takes over this backfield in year two and has a massive season on the ground.

Defense

As a unit, Denver's defense finished in the top ten in almost every major category. They allowed the third fewest points, eight fewest total yards and fifth fewest passing yards. Rookie corner Patrick Surtain was the best corner of the 2021 draft class and by the end of the season, was playing like one of the best corners in the NFL. Surtain finished 2021 with 14 passes defensed and 4 interceptions. Safety Justin Simmons continued his play as one of the best safeties in the league and was named second team All-Pro recording 80 tackles, 12 pass defenses and 5 interceptions. This combination was a major reason Denver's secondary was so stingy and I wouldn't be surprised if that was the case for years to come. Up front, Bradley Chubb again struggled with injury and was disappointing when on the field finishing with zero sacks in seven games. Superbowl 50 MVP and future Hall of Famer Von Miller had 4.5 sacks in seven games before he was shipped to the Rams and Shelby Harris led the team with six sacks from the interior of the defensive line.

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What's Changed?

Bronco's Country Lets Ride...

For the first time since 2015, Denver will have a truly elite QB under center. The team made one of the biggest blockbuster trades in NFL history when they sent QB Drew Lock, TE Noah Fant, DL Shelby Harris, a 2022 and 2023 first-round pick, a 2022 and 2023 second-round pick and a 2022 fifth-round pick to the Seattle Seahawks for QB Russell Wilson and a 2022 fourth round pick. Acquiring Wilson immediately made the Bronco's Super Bowl contenders. Wilson is an undisputed top ten quarterback whose accuracy, athleticism, and deep ball are arguably the best in the game. Although Wilson struggled last season in Seattle because of a finger injury that lingered for weeks, I see him returning to elite form in Denver. It's not only exciting to think about how Wilson will be paired with an offensive minded head coach (Nathaniel Hackett) for the first time in his entire career, but also about the combination of weapons at his disposal. I envision Wilson building a significant rapport with the receiving core comprised of Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler. Hamler is a player I can see exploding onto the scene in Denver with Wilson at QB. He is recovering from a torn ACL he sustained in 2021, but his profile is similar to one of Wilson's favorite targets in Seattle, Tyler Lockett. Like Lockett, Hamler is smaller in stature (5'9") and can take the top off of any defense. Regardless of who becomes Wilson's favorite target, I see his passes cutting through the thin air at Mile High Field on his way to leading Denver to a playoff birth.