Primetime Primer: TB @ DAL

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys

AT&T Stadium Arlington, TX

Sunday 9/11/ 2022

Kickoff - 8:20 PM EDT

Who Wins and Why:

Tom Brady and the Buccaneers are ready to make another run at the Lombardi Trophy. A disappointing Divisional Round loss to the eventual Super Bowl champion Rams ended their 2021 season, and the Buccaneers had a tumultuous offseason that featured a head coaching change, a Brady retirement, and a Brady unretirement. On the opposite sideline, the Cowboys' 2021 ended with a frustrating loss to the 49ers in the Wild Card round. During the offseason, Dallas took a number of key personnel blows including the losses of Amari Cooper, Randy Gregory, and Cedrick Wilson. Injuries to stalwart left tackle Tyron Smith and key receiver Michael Gallup also complicate the offensive outlook for Dallas out of the gate.

I believe that this game will be decided by who can get the most out of their passing attack. With Brady back, Tampa's passing attack will once again be among the best in the league. In 2021, the Bucs finished with the most passing yards in the NFL followed by none other than the Dallas Cowboys. Brady will have a full arsenal of weapons at his disposal as Mike Evans will be joined by the returning Chris Godwin who sustained a torn ACL at the end of last season and free agent signings Julio Jones and Russell Gage. Although Dallas will likely have 2021 first team All-Pro corner and interception machine Trevon Diggs line up opposite Mike Evans all night, I still expect that Brady will be able to get Evans and the rest of the Bucs receivers the ball on a consistent basis. On the other hand, I do not think that Dak Prescott will have the same luck against the Buccaneers loaded defense. CeeDee Lamb is a stud, but without three of Dak's top four targets at receiver from last year Prescott and the Cowboys could struggle to get their legs underneath them. Also, the loss of Tyron Smith to a brutal leg injury makes it even more difficult for me to see Dallas sustaining drives in this matchup. Don't expect Ezekiel Elliott or Tony Pollard to have a ton of success on the ground either, as the Buccaneers had the third best rushing defense in terms of yards allowed in 2021 and replaced Ndamukong Suh with Akiem Hicks who is more than capable of disrupting a game from the interior. My only hesitation with picking the Bucs in this matchup is whether or not the interior of their offensive line can hold up. If Dallas' Defensive Coordinator Dan Quinn can get creative and Brady faces consistent pressure over the center and in the A-gaps then I could see the Cowboys coming away with a victory.

Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay 30 Dallas 24

Pick: TB -2.5

Over/Under: Over

Odds Provided by Draftkings Sportsbook